I have a version of this conversation at least once a month.
Someone reaches out, we talk about what they’re looking for, it becomes clear they’re genuinely ready (financially, practically, emotionally) and then they say it: “We’re just going to wait and see what the market does.”
I understand the instinct. Buying a home is probably the biggest financial decision of your life. You want to get it right. You don’t want to overpay. You’ve read enough headlines to know the market goes up and down, and the idea of buying at the top feels like a trap.
But here’s what I’ve watched happen over and over again. The people who wait don’t usually time the market perfectly. They just wait, and then buy later, for more money, having spent months or years paying someone else’s mortgage in the meantime.
Let me be direct about what that actually costs.
The Math Nobody Sits Down to Do
Let’s say you’re renting a two-bedroom in Scarborough for $2,200 a month. That’s $26,400 a year. If you wait two years to buy, you’ve spent $52,800 in rent. That money is gone. You have nothing to show for it. No equity, no asset, no stake in what the market does.
Now look at what home prices have done in the east end over any meaningful window of time. Cliffcrest, Birch Cliff, Cliffside. These aren’t neighbourhoods that have been sitting still. Properties that sold in 2019 for $750,000 were worth significantly more by 2022. The dip in 2023 spooked a lot of people. The people who bought anyway are sitting on equity today.
Nobody knows exactly where prices go next. Anyone who tells you otherwise is selling something. But here’s what I do know: in the Toronto east end, the long-term direction has consistently been up. The lake doesn’t move. The Bluffs aren’t going anywhere. The demand for this part of the city isn’t going away.
Waiting for a crash that may or may not come, while paying full rent, is its own financial decision. It just doesn’t feel like one.
The Timing Myth
I’ve been doing this long enough to know that almost nobody times the market. The people who bought in early 2022 felt like geniuses until late 2022. The people who held off in 2023 thinking prices would fall further watched the market stabilize and then move again.
The perfect moment to buy exists mostly in hindsight. Looking back, there’s almost always a window where you could say “that was the time.” Looking forward, it’s almost impossible to identify with any confidence.
What I tell clients is this: the best time to buy is when you’re ready. When your finances are in order, your life situation is stable, and you’ve found something that makes sense for where you’re headed. Market timing is a secondary factor for most people, not the primary one.
What Waiting Really Costs You
Beyond the money, there’s something harder to quantify. Every month you wait is a month you’re not building equity. It’s a month you can’t paint the walls the colour you want, can’t put down roots, can’t stop wondering whether your landlord is going to sell.
I’ve talked to people who waited for the “right time” for three or four years. They all bought eventually. Not one of them told me they were glad they waited.
The question isn’t really “is this the perfect time?” The question is: “If I wait another year and prices move up 5%, will I wish I’d bought now?” For most of the buyers I work with in Scarborough and the east end, the honest answer is yes.
This Isn’t a Pitch
I’m not writing this to manufacture urgency. Buying before you’re ready is its own kind of mistake, and I’ve seen that too.
What I am saying is that “waiting to see what the market does” is itself a choice with a real cost attached to it. Before you make that call, it’s worth doing the actual math on what another year of renting costs you. Not just in money, but in time and optionality.
If you want to run those numbers together and look honestly at whether now makes sense for your situation, that’s a conversation I’m happy to have. No pressure, no pitch. Just a straight answer.
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